Most Popular 70-Degree Weeks:

Monday, March 29, 2004

5:42 PM -- Short note from Jury member Tom Duffy.

All edges are open [ice free], coves are open, melting fast - very black. A few windy days and 60 degrees will do it.

2:32 PM -- The second day of high temps led to a lot of melting. The Jury has announced that the Ice-Out percentage for Sunday afternoon was 8%. An increase of 4 percentage points since the previous day.

9:05 AM -- Temps on Sunday moved back into a more seasonal range. Although the melting seemed to make a leap on Friday and Saturday, it probably slowed on Sunday.

Later this morning I expect to get the official percentage from the Jury.

In other Spring-related news, Beth H of Neals Cove reports:

I think I saw a couple of Loons this morning... but one of them was almost completely white, so maybe it was a couple of ducks.

Saturday, March 27, 2004

2:11 PM -- The Official Ice-Out percentage for yesterday was 4%.

12:12 PM -- I'm waiting to hear from the Jury about yesterday's official Ice-Out percentage. Unofficially George told me that there was new melting, but that the ice is so thick that it didn't really make a big change. He expected the new percentage to still be under 5%.

Of course it's another really warm day at the Lake. The temp is currently 61 degrees. It topped out at 67 about an hour ago, but the passing of a cold front may have ruled out today as the first 70-Degree day.

Check back later today. I'll post the official percentage as soon as I receive it (assuming I'm not out enjoying the beautiful day myself).

Friday, March 26, 2004

8:54 PM -- Almost! The temp today (Friday) reached 65.9 degrees. It actually hit 70 in Manchester. That is much warmer than the forecast called for. Tomorrow's hi is forecast to reach 55.

4:50 PM -- Ice-Out Jury member George Voltz reports:

First milestone for the 2004 ice out season, my cove is 100% ICE FREE as of this afternoon, March 26th. With no extreme cold weather predicted for the next few days, this ice free stage should be migrating out the cove now. Also with rain in the forecast for Saturday morning, we should start seeing the ice get eaten up now.

2:06 PM -- "What we have here is a failure to communicate."

My bad. I misunderstood the way that the Jury was sending the Ice-Out percentages to me. Thursday's percentage actually did increase from 2% to 3%. I've now fixed the list in the right column.

AM -- No more ice melting yesterday, but we are definitely seeing an upward trend in the daily temps. The forecast is for it to rain on Saturday, so maybe that will help things along.

Ice-Out Fun Fact #6

Here are some examples of when the first 70-Degree day happened in recent springs:

First 70-degree day after Mar 21 (at Manchester Airport):
1998 mar 27
1999 mar 31
2000 apr 8 (mar 9 also reached 70)
2001 apr 22
2002 apr 3
2003 apr 15

Thursday, March 25, 2004

New Hi-Temp yesterday, 52.9, and the Ice-Out percent rose to TWO.

Ice-Out Fun Fact #5

This morning's Fun Fact is a little complicated. Stick with me here.

As we saw yesterday, many people entered more than one Guess this year. One strategy for winning, was to "wheel" the day you think will be Ice-Out by entering more than one Guess for that day, trying to cover all the choices for 70-Degree week for that date. Same thing if you think you know which will be the 70-Degree week.

Did anyone try this tactic?

This last Fact for today is much simpler. It seems that Ice-Out is a family affair. Two families (judged by same last name) were enthusiastic Guessers.

Disclosure: The Hodgson's are my family. I didn't enter any Guesses, and I didn't try to influence their Guessing in any way. But I am a little bummed that we got beat out by the Blouins.

Wednesday, March 24, 2004

Neal's Cove resident Scott Hodgson reports that he managed to launch his kayak and go for a short paddle yesterday.

That's what today is: March 23, 1st kayak ride, 1st day of "Spring".

I made it past the neighbor's island, but was unable to get to the second island out.

There is enough water and thin ice that I could probably go halfway to the downed tree [at the farpoint of the second island] but I would of had to port the Kayak over this barrier reef of rocks. It didn't seem worth it for such a little more distance.

I did beach it and go for a short hike.

If the ice were a little thinner in-between the islands I could port over "Peegey Peegy" island and paddle to the [other end of the second island], which has very thin ice.

Ice-Out Fun Fact #4

This year, for the first time, you were allowed to enter more than one Guess for Ice-Out. Some of you took advantage of this.

5: Most Guesses from a single person
5: Number of people who made 5 Guesses

Tuesday, March 23, 2004

I'm stuck this winter down here in the southland (Boston), and I miss not being able to see the current condition of the lake, the rising water and the ice cover.

All of you guys with digital cameras, send me a pic of the lake. Maybe we should have an impromptu photo contest. Send me pics of the lake, I'll post them here, and we'll award swell prizes for the most notable pics.

Today's Ice-Out Fun Fact #3

From Ice-Out Jury member George Voltz:

In 2003 we first saw 10% ice-free on March 26, then we had that deep freeze and didn't see 10% again until April 11th.

Monday, March 22, 2004

Well here we go. The Ice-Out Guessing period has ended, and all the Guesses have been officially recorded.

Good luck to all the participants.

Here's a fun fact (#2) from this Year's Guesses:

81: The Total number of GUESSES entered this year.
41: The Total number of GUESSERS this year.
34: The Total number of GUESSERS last year.

From now until Ice-Out, I'll be sharing more fun facts from the Guesses Chart, as well as about ice-out around the country, and throughout history. Check back often.

Here's some breaking news!

Yesterday was Ice-Out for Walden Pond just to the west of Boston. Here's the announcement. Note that Ice-Out at Walden was 12 days earlier this year than last year.

That makes all those early April Guesses look better and better. Well, we can hope.

Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Did someone say snow?

We received a lot of Guesses yesterday. The Guessing Chart is starting to fill up. We had more Guesses in this batch that were already taken than any other time so far this spring.

Guesses that are already taken are returned to the Guesser for re-guessing.

A quick look at which weeks are the popular choice for first 70 degrees, shows us that the week of April 11-17 is the favorite.

Week of
Apr 11  18 people guessed this week
Apr  4  15           "
Apr 18  12           "
Mar 28   8           "
Mar 21   4           "
Apr 25   3           "

Monday, March 15, 2004

Last chance.

This is the final week of the Ice-Out Guessing period for this year. All guesses will be finalized at saturday midnight.

A lot of participants from last year have not checked in this year, including last year's winner. So the title of Ice-Out Guessing champ for 2004 is really up for grabs.

Here's last year's guessing chart:

Also, many of you have not taken advantage of the ability to enter multiple guesses this years.

So, whether you've already entered or not, this week is your last chance.

Saturday, March 13, 2004

Ice-Out Jury member Randy Hale reports from the east shore of the North Lake:

The water (and the ice) rose several inches, leaving a very thin ice coating between it and the shore, more than 20" wide in places around here. And the formerly ubiquitous fishermen have vanished. Maybe because they need a bridge to get to the ice?

Wednesday, March 10, 2004

Ice-Out Fun Fact #1

Last year's Ice-Out was April 16. The first 70 degree day was April 15.

Here's a chart of which days this year are the most popular Guesses for Ice-Out. So far, April 2 is most popular with 6 people choosing it.

Tuesday, March 9, 2004

Time flies!

One year ago today, we announced the start of the 2003 Ice-Out Guessing Contest.

We started the contest earlier this year, so it feels like the guessing has been going on for a long time, and that it is almost over. But last year at this time we were just getting started.

34 Guessers in 2003, only 29 so far this year.

Guess now! Don't miss out.

Sunday, March 7, 2004

As those of you wintering on the Lake know, the water level is rising fast. For the first time since last fall, I was able to take an official measurement over the weekend.

You'll recall that last spring, when I was living on the lake, I took daily measures of the spring "flood". But I'm living away from the lake this year.

Well, yesterday, the level was 20.9 feet on the Dolloff Dam scale. That is about 3.5 - 4 feet below the normal summer level, and about 1-2 feet above the winter low.

That puts us about 3 weeks ahead of last spring's flood. We didn't reach this level last year until March 19.

This Spring's early rise is even more dramatic, because normally the snow-cover hides the rising water. This year it's right there for all to see.

Almost time to launch the boats.

Don't forget that we now have only two weeks left to enter your ice out guesses. You can enter one guess every week. Don't miss out.

Thursday, March 4, 2004

Ice-Out Jury member GeorgeV reports:

The melting has officially begun even though we are not at the March 20th start Date yet. The entrance to my cove is all water this afternoon. We also have a two - three foot gap of water for about 30-40 feet along the edges of Mountain Brook Cove to either side of my cove.

Wednesday, March 3, 2004

Lake resident, BethH, reports: "This morning there was still no water showing [around the shoreline] from what I could see... although there is more and more areas on the ice where puddles are forming. I hope we've seen the last of four wheelers on the ice, it doesn't look safe..."

Tuesday, March 2, 2004

5:41 PM -- Hey! Somebody tell Mother Nature that the ice-out contest doesn't begin for three weeks.

Another hi-temp today. 60.8 degrees.

AM -- Longtime Pawtuckaway summer resident PhyllisH. checked in yesterday from her winter retreat. She comments on the fact that I too am not spending this winter at the lake.

"...you need an assistant to check the ice and temp since you are not up there much of the time. That was part of the fun last year, getting daily reports."

I've been thinking about this myself. I'll be relying more on the iceout Jury Members this year, but what I also want to do is put together a small group of lake residents who will send me reports on conditions.

Monday, March 1, 2004

Hat Trick. Three days in a row of new seasonal hi temps. 52.8 degrees.

Sunday, February 29, 2004

Two in a row!

For the second consecutive day, we've had a new hi temp for the season. 51.1 degrees. Serious melting can't be far behind. Send in those Ice-Out guesses now!

Saturday, February 28, 2004

New hi temp for the "spring". 47.0 degrees.

Monday, February 23, 2004

What a gorgeous day! Is the Ice gone yet? I guess not.

Well, I just caught up with entering guesses into the list. If you sent one in, and it isn't on the chart, give me a holler.

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Well, I finally posted all those Guesses to the chart. If you sent in a Guess and it isn't recorded, holler now, so I can track it down.

The most popular date right now is April 1. Three Guessers think that will be Ice-Out. There are six days that have two Guesses. Things are starting to pick up.

Guess early, Guess often. Don't get shut out.

Monday, February 16, 2004

3:41 PM -- Oops. Well I've fallen a little behind entering Guesses into the chart. I have about a half dozen emails in the queue waiting to be added. I'll try to post them this evening.

Sunday, February 15, 2004

9:02 AM -- Gotta love New England!

Yesterday was beautiful. We came close to recording another hi temp for the spring. Yet now, the next morning, the temp has dropped well into the single digits.

Yesterday we were out on the lake, admiring the fact the there was water accumulating around the edges of the lake-ice, and any exposed ground was softening up under the warm sun. I'm guessing that it's not that way now.

Five degrees!

Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Well, another hi temp day yesterday. Could it be Spring?

Guesses continue to come in.

One surprising thing about the guesses so far, is that no one has yet taken advantage of the fact that this year you can enter multiple guesses. You can enter an additional guess every week. More guesses give you more chances to win. You can enter up to seven guesses, one each week until March 20. But if you miss a week, that chance to guess is gone forever.

Guess early, guess often.

One other thing. Last year people included little comments in their Guess Submission Emails that explained a little about why they picked that date. That was fun. It's optional, and all it will really do is give me a chance to make fun of you in these news items, but tell me a little about your guess when you send it in.

-- Jack

Tuesday, February 10, 2004

5:26 PM -- Ice Out Jury Member George Voltz reports:

let it begin ...

... I actually have little water in the cove. This is just the beginning, should be more each day now, unless we get hit with a DEEP FREEZE again. Hopefully that means they have started putting the boards in the dam.

George

AM -- We're making some slow progress toward ice-out, yesterday we had a new hi temp for the season. 42.9. Balmy! Pretty soon we'll be complaining about the humidity.

Remember that this year you can enter more than one guess. Even if you sent one in last week you can now pick another box on the guessing chart and add your name to it. You can sent in one guess every week until Mar 20.

Friday, February 6, 2004

Well I'm hoping that ice-out is still 0%, cause I'm heading up to the lake tomorrow morning for the annual charity Ice Golf tournament.

Any places without ice tomorrow would be the ultimate water hazard.

Keep those Ice-Out guesses coming in. And remember that this year you can add an additional guess every week, so send in your second guesses starting Sunday.

Monday, February 2, 2004

Here we go again.

If you played last year, note that we made some changes so that more people could play. This year you need to guess BOTH the ice-out date AND the week that the temp first hits 70 degrees. But you get to place more guesses too. One guess every week. See the rules.

BTW, Punxatawney Phil saw his shadow this morning thus predicting six more weeks of winter. So that means winter will end just about the time the ice-out guessing period ends.